ASHINGTON, June 18 The Bush administration has
concluded that options short of an all-out military assault
against Iraq, including military support to opposition forces
or fomenting a coup, should be tried over the next few months
to dislodge President Saddam Hussein from power.
But many in the administration expect those attempts to
fail, and there is disagreement over how to proceed with a
more robust military strategy.
|
Advertisement
|
.gif) |
.gif) |
The more limited plan using American Special Forces
working with opposition forces on the ground, along the
Afghanistan model has strong proponents on the civilian side
of the Pentagon and within the president's National Security
Council, administration and Congressional officials say.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff, however, say privately that the
differences between Iraq and Afghanistan are vast and call
that approach nave. If ordered to commit forces, they favor a
decisive, overwhelming use of troops, the officials said.
The chiefs have said that an invasion would require at
least 200,000 troops and have expressed deep concerns that Mr.
Hussein might use biological or chemical weapons. They also
worry about a prolonged occupation in a post-Hussein Iraq.
While Bush administration officials agree on the need to
oust the Iraqi leader, they are providing the president with
differing assessments of Mr. Hussein's strength and the
ability of the United States to force him out through limited
means.
Three approaches to removing Mr. Hussein have been
discussed, the officials said: providing logistical and
intelligence help to his enemies in hopes of inciting a mutiny
within his military circle; providing air and limited ground
support for an assault by opposition groups; or an outright
American invasion.
The options are not mutually exclusive, and some
administration officials say that the more limited options
should be tried before resorting to an all-out invasion.
Gen. Tommy R. Franks, who as commander of the Central
Command would oversee any military action against Iraq,
presented Defense Department officials today with a strategy
paper that laid out his military requirements for toppling Mr.
Hussein. General Franks is to brief President Bush on the
paper on Wednesday.
Mr. Bush, who has insisted that a change of leadership in
Iraq is a core goal, has yet to decide on a course of action,
officials say.
There are some indications that Mr. Bush may not feel
compelled to decide right away on a single approach, but that
he may give the covert strategy and international sanctions
time to run their course.
Pentagon planners say they would in any case need at least
three to five months to position forces for an invasion, which
officials said would not be likely before early next year.
Provoking a military coup may be the most desirable option,
but the Central Intelligence Agency's efforts for more than a
decade to weaken and sabotage Mr. Hussein have been thwarted
by his control over his own security. Even within the C.I.A.,
officials give a coup little chance.
The second approach is inspired by the American campaign
against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The United States would
insert Special Forces troops into southern Iraq and declare a
liberated zone there. Working with opposition forces, the
United States would provide air cover for an attack on
Baghdad, providing intelligence and logistical support.
The strongest advocates of this strategy are Pentagon
civilians, led by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz
and Gen. Wayne A. Downing, the White House's deputy national
security adviser for fighting terrorism, officials said.
In this view, Mr. Hussein is far weaker than he was during
the Persian Gulf war, and opposition forces could count on
large-scale defections from Iraqi forces. But skeptics say it
is wishful thinking to try to replicate the campaign in
Afghanistan, where the American-backed Northern Alliance was
more evenly matched against the Taliban forces.
Even in a limited role, critics say, American forces would
have to contend with threats never posed in Afghanistan,
including ground-based air defenses and the possibility that
Mr. Hussein would unleash weapons of mass destruction.
The last option, which officials say is most likely, would
involve a full-scale invasion by American and possibly British
troops. Some officials refer to this possibility as "Persian
Gulf War Lite," because it would involve fewer than half the
540,000 troops deployed in the 1991 conflict.
Everybody agrees that a plan is incomplete without an
endgame. The Joint Chiefs emphasize the need to set a
definition for victory in Iraq, to determine who or what would
replace Mr. Hussein's government, and to assess the impact of
such action on the complicated mix of Persian Gulf and Middle
Eastern politics.